News

There’s a certain clairvoyance required of a great satirist, an almost supernatural knack for holding up a mirror to society and forcing us to see the grotesque reflection that lurks behind our glossy veneers.

Whilst always being a centrist politically, I have loved the ascorbic, usually left, sometimes far-left that British stand-up comedy brings and have been a huge fan of Ben Elton’s from his first outing in his shiny suit on Friday Night Live. Elton, the sardonic jester of British comedy and a proud Labour man of the Mrs Thatch era, delivered this in spades with Gasping, his debut play from 1990.

At the time, Gasping seemed like a clever, absurdist send-up of 1980s corporate greed, Thatcherite free-market frenzy, and the rise of glossy marketing machineries. But as we sit here in 2025, with the air around us tinged with both pollution and bureaucracy, one has to wonder—was Elton’s play less satire and more prophecy?

For those unfamiliar, Gasping tells the story of a slick ad executive who, in pursuit of the next big thing, helps his company invent and monetise “Perrier for the nostrils”—oxygen in a bottle. What starts as a hilariously absurd concept spirals into chaos, as the commodification of clean air leads to shortages, global inequality, and an all-too-real survival-of-the-richest scenario. Funny? Absolutely. Ridiculously prescient? Even more so.

Taxing the air we breathe? Surely not

Fast-forward to today, and Elton’s dystopian vision doesn’t feel as far-fetched as it once did. Sure, we don’t yet queue at Tesco for bottled oxygen, but it’s not entirely beyond the realm of possibility. Air quality has become a premium commodity in urban centres, with wealthier neighbourhoods often enjoying cleaner skies while poorer areas choke on the detritus of heavy industry. Purifiers, filtration systems, and even air-purifying plants have become middle-class staples—essentially a DIY tax on the air we breathe.

But where Elton really gets spookily close to home is in his critique of big business and governmental overreach. In Gasping, the corporate world exploits something that should be a universal right—clean air—and turns it into a cash cow. It’s hard not to draw parallels with our current predicament, where everything from water to parking to the miles we drive is metred, measured, and taxed. And with a government as hungry for revenue as today’s Labour Party, it’s not entirely inconceivable that oxygen could be next on the list. After all, we’ve already got carbon taxes—how far off is an “air utilisation levy”?

The irony, of course, lies in Elton’s Labour allegiances. Back in the day, he was the poster boy for Thatcher-bashing, a flag-waving advocate for socialist ideals and the redistribution of wealth. The idea that his beloved Labour Party could one day be accused of taxing everything under the sun—well, it would have made the younger Elton choke on his organically sourced lentil soup. Yet here we are, with some of the most inventive revenue-raising schemes coming from the red corner.

A new divide: oxygen as a status symbol

The world Elton imagined in Gasping is one where the “haves” breathe easy while the “have-nots” gasp for survival—a painfully familiar dynamic in today’s world. Clean air is no longer a given; it’s a privilege. In cities like Delhi and Beijing, air pollution is so severe that oxygen bars and personal air-purifying devices are booming industries. And while these innovations are marketed as lifestyle products for the affluent, they highlight a stark truth: the gap between those who can afford to protect themselves and those who cannot is growing ever wider.

The Third World, as Elton dubbed it in his play, is still being plundered, not for oxygen but for resources that keep the wheels of capitalism spinning. Meanwhile, climate change—arguably the ultimate indictment of our collective greed—has made clean air an increasingly scarce commodity. Forests, the lungs of the Earth, are cleared at an alarming rate, often in the name of profit. Elton’s satire wasn’t just about air; it was about the commodification of anything and everything, no matter the consequences.

So, was Ben Elton a satirical Nostradamus? Perhaps. Or perhaps his genius lies in his ability to distil universal truths into biting comedy. The themes he explored in Gasping—greed, inequality, environmental degradation—are as relevant today as they were in 1990. The difference is that we now live in the world he once exaggerated for comedic effect. The joke, it seems, is on us.

And what of Elton’s beloved Labour Party? Could he have foreseen its evolution from the scrappy underdog of the 1980s to the tax-happy establishment of today? One suspects he might have, though he’d have skewered them just as mercilessly as he did the Conservatives. Because, at his core, Elton is a satirist first and foremost, and satire spares no one—not even its own creators.

In the end, Gasping is both a warning and a time capsule, a reminder of where we’ve been and a cautionary tale of where we might be headed. As the world grapples with climate change, resource scarcity, and the ever-present shadow of corporate greed, Elton’s play feels less like a relic of the past and more like a roadmap to an unsettling future. So, if you find yourself reaching for your Dyson air purifier or paying extra for a seat in a “clean air zone,” spare a thought for Ben Elton. He saw it coming, and he made us laugh before we started gasping.

Read more:
Did Ben Elton predict his beloved Labour’s taxing future?

Agreements worth £600 million, potentially adding £1 billion in value to the UK economy, have been secured following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ trip to Beijing.

Winnie Cao, Head of Blick Rothenberg’s China Desk and China Business Group, described the productive discussions between Reeves and Vice Premier He Lifeng as a positive sign for both Chinese and British businesses. “Another outcome of this visit is the opening up of the legal services market, allowing more UK law firms to operate in China,” Cao said. “This will be welcome, as Chinese companies often need professional guidance in the same time zone, yet local Chinese law firms can lack in-house UK expertise.”

Cao also highlighted a new understanding between the Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants (CICPA) and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) to explore “expanding the scope of mutual examination exemptions”. This, she said, could encourage more Chinese accountancy students to earn a UK ICAEW qualification — and vice versa — benefiting firms in both countries. “The UK accountancy sector has struggled for talent in recent years, and having more UK-qualified accountants in China may open up cost-effective outsourcing opportunities,” she noted. “At the same time, Chinese accountants who are UK-qualified will be of great help to Chinese businesses wishing to expand into the UK.”

One particular hurdle for Chinese firms investing abroad is the cultural gap in tax and accounting rules, but Cao believes that if these firms have access to more UK-qualified finance professionals, initial misunderstandings will be bridged more easily.

Although the progress made during Reeves’ China visit marks a step forward, Cao urged the UK government to seize the momentum and negotiate a social security reciprocal agreement. “Similar arrangements exist with South Korea and Japan,” she said. “Such an agreement would reduce both costs and paperwork for expatriates moving between the two countries, encouraging deeper mutual investment.”

Overall, Reeves’ visit appears to have laid the groundwork for renewed bilateral cooperation, with significant opportunities for British professionals in China, Chinese firms in the UK, and potential progress on regulatory reforms that ease cross-border trade and investment.

Read more:
Rachel Reeves’ China visit restores crucial links with world’s second-largest economy

Britons and overseas visitors may soon find themselves paying a “hotel tax” on every overnight stay, under Treasury proposals designed to shore up the public purse as borrowing costs continue to climb.

The potential levy, part of “modelling exercises” carried out by officials, mirrors the tourist taxes in countries such as France, where the nightly charge ranges from less than £1 at a campsite to more than £12 in five-star accommodation.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who introduced £40 billion in tax increases at last autumn’s Budget, has repeatedly insisted there will be no repeat of those hikes. However, tumbling bond prices and the highest government borrowing rates since 2008 mean she may soon be forced to find new revenue streams. Analysts say that unless taxes rise or spending falls, Reeves risks breaching her self-imposed fiscal rules — a scenario that could further erode market confidence in the UK’s economic stability.

Under the prospective nationwide scheme, both domestic travellers and foreign visitors would pay an added charge on their nightly stay. This comes as several parts of the UK explore local tourism levies. Wales is proposing a nightly fee of £1.25 for visitors, while Edinburgh will introduce a 5 per cent tax on accommodation from July 2026. According to the TaxPayers’ Alliance, rolling out the Welsh model across England would net about £560 million a year. Adopting something closer to the French system, however, could yield more than £1 billion.

Hoteliers warn of detrimental consequences. Sir Rocco Forte, whose eponymous hotel group has a global footprint, argues the measure would be a “pernicious new tax” coming on top of increases in employers’ national insurance, rising air travel levies, and the scrapping of VAT refunds for foreign tourists. He believes it would hit the entire tourism supply chain — from restaurants and museums to taxi drivers and shops — as visitors rein in spending to offset the higher cost of accommodation.

Reeves, currently on a high-profile visit to China aimed at attracting inward investment, has come under fire over the timing of her trip. Gilt yields have soared in recent days as so-called “bond market vigilantes” demand higher returns for holding UK debt, pushing up government borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the pound fell below $1.22, a decline that does make Britain cheaper for overseas travellers but also raises concerns over import-driven inflation.

If borrowing costs remain elevated, the Treasury could look beyond a hotel tax to keep the chancellor’s fiscal pledges intact. More substantial measures might include an increase in corporation tax or cuts to welfare and disability benefits. Observers note that the spring statement, scheduled for 26 March, could become a de facto emergency budget if market conditions fail to improve.

Sir Rocco Forte’s condemnation of the hotel levy reflects mounting exasperation in the tourism sector, which contends that hospitality already shoulders heavy taxes and regulatory costs. He points out that several other countries that impose a tourist tax ring-fence the proceeds to enhance visitor facilities. By contrast, the UK’s plan, he fears, would simply funnel the proceeds into filling “the black hole” in public finances.

Despite the outcry, Treasury insiders remain tight-lipped, calling talk of a new hotel tax “speculation.” A spokesperson has insisted the chancellor will stick to her fiscal rules and continue to pursue spending restraint. Ministers plan to review expenditures in June to “root out waste,” but industry observers argue that a new tourism levy risks undermining one of the UK’s most vibrant sectors.

In the end, whether the chancellor can balance the books without a fresh round of tax hikes will largely depend on market sentiment. As the cost of government debt climbs, so does the political imperative to find revenue sources that avoid repeating the hefty tax rises enacted last autumn. The final decision could hinge on whether an increasingly value-conscious travel market is willing to pay an extra nightly charge for the privilege of visiting Britain’s shores.

Read more:
Rachel Reeves weighs a ‘hotel tax’ as treasury battles to fill funding gap

HM Revenue & Customs is ramping up its scrutiny of “side hustle” earnings, requiring online platforms such as eBay, Vinted and Airbnb to submit information on users’ incomes for 2024 by the end of this month.

However, concerns have been raised that the discrepancy between the UK tax year (April to April) and the OECD’s reporting period (January to December) could lead many casual sellers to make mistakes on their tax returns.

The Low Incomes Tax Reforms Group (LITRG) warns that people might unintentionally provide inaccurate figures to HMRC because the data they receive covers the calendar year, not the tax year. For instance, only earnings from January to March 2024 would be relevant for a self-assessment due this month, yet the total figure submitted by the online platforms spans all 12 months of 2024.

“Just one quarter of the data people will receive is pertinent to the current tax return,” says Meredith McCammond, a technical officer at LITRG. “That could lead to confusion, especially for those filing a return for the first time and needing help during HMRC’s busiest period.”

Under the new guidance, any platform user earning over £1,700 or making 30 transactions in a year will have their information passed to HMRC. While this is not a new tax, it may lead to tax being imposed on individuals who previously were unaware they needed to declare online sales. Dawn Register of accountancy firm BDO comments that, despite incomplete data, HMRC will still have enough information to launch an investigation if a seller’s turnover appears high.

“The new rules may well mean there are some nasty surprises for people who are either ignorant of the existing legislation or haven’t declared their earnings,” Register says. At the same time, HMRC could be surprised by how much some casual sellers actually earn online.

Many casual sellers and “declutterers” will be shielded by the UK’s trading allowance, which lets individuals earn up to £1,000 a year from occasional trading without paying tax. A spokesperson for HMRC emphasised that “absolutely nothing has changed” for people selling unwanted personal items. The new focus is on those conducting consistent trading or making gains on sales.

Miruna Constantin of RSM UK recalls that, when the procedures were introduced last year, public worry spiked: “Chaos ensued when people thought HMRC might suddenly tax all the extra cash they made from selling unwanted Christmas gifts. HMRC has since provided detailed guidance.”

Practical steps for sellers

The new data, scheduled to be reported in quarterly blocks, should help sellers match platform statements more closely to their tax obligations. But for a smooth process, experts advise paying close attention to:
• dates: Figure out which quarter applies to your current self-assessment period (January to March 2024 for the 2023-24 tax year).
• allowances: Remember that the first £1,000 of trading income is generally tax-free, and separate capital gains rules may apply if you are making a profit on the sale of valuable items.
• when in doubt, ask: If you’re unsure, seeking advice from HMRC or a tax professional can help avoid costly errors or investigations.

With this expanded reporting, the government hopes to reduce hidden or accidental non-compliance. However, until sellers feel confident about how and when to apply the numbers from eBay, Vinted, and other platforms, the risk of “nasty surprises” remains.

Read more:
New tax checks on side hustles like eBay and Vinted risk confusion over different reporting periods

Britain has “no choice at all” but to engage with China, Rachel Reeves has argued, as she seeks to shore up economic growth against a backdrop of soaring borrowing costs and uneasy financial markets.

The chancellor arrived in Beijing to finalise new trade and investment commitments worth £600 million over five years, the first trip by a UK chancellor to China in over half a decade.

Her visit comes as the UK grapples with stubbornly high inflation and renewed doubts over how quickly the Bank of England can cut interest rates. The yield on 30-year government debt remains at a 27-year high, while the pound has lost ground against the dollar — both unwelcome echoes of last year’s market turmoil.

Reeves reaffirmed her “non-negotiable” fiscal rules, emphasising that economic stability is vital to restoring confidence. The Treasury’s upcoming spending review is already expected to demand efficiency savings of at least 5 per cent across Whitehall, and the spike in debt-servicing costs could see that figure rise further. Reeves has vowed not to repeat the tax hikes of last autumn, though her options have narrowed as inflationary pressures remain persistent.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned that any breach of the chancellor’s self-imposed borrowing limits would rattle the markets and send yields higher still. That scenario looms larger with the cost of servicing the government’s debt surging and subdued economic growth undermining tax receipts.

To help counter these pressures, the chancellor aims to increase trade and inward investment ties with China. She argues that the UK’s former, more isolationist stance put the country at a disadvantage when France and Germany were expanding their own commercial relationships with Beijing. China is the world’s second-largest economy and the UK’s fourth-largest trading partner, supporting nearly half a million British jobs through exports.

Agreements reached with Vice Premier He Lifeng include further cooperation in areas such as financial services, cross-border investment, climate initiatives, and agriculture. “Choosing not to engage with China is therefore no choice at all,” Reeves said, insisting that relations should remain “respectful and consistent” despite sharp ideological differences.

Investors have become warier of UK assets in recent weeks, spooked by inflation lingering stubbornly above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Markets had anticipated two quarter-point rate cuts this year, trimming the Bank’s key interest rate from 4.75 per cent down to 4.25 per cent. Analysts now question whether the second cut will materialise, a setback for the 1.8 million households on fixed-rate mortgages due to expire in 2025.

That doubt spells trouble for borrowers hoping two-year fixed mortgage rates would drop beneath 4 per cent. Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predict that high inflation could persist, lifting price expectations and dampening the Bank’s appetite for monetary easing. But others, including George Buckley of Nomura, believe rising gilt yields themselves will act as a brake on inflation, allowing more cuts over the coming year.

Beyond the UK, uncertainty hangs over the global economy as Donald Trump’s White House transition adds volatility to currency markets. The dollar has benefited from his pledges on corporate tax reform and deregulation, reinforcing a strong greenback at the pound’s expense. Mortgage brokers say any softening in expectations for British rate cuts will prolong elevated mortgage costs, weighing on the housing market and consumer spending.

For the chancellor, the challenge now is to leverage new trade deals abroad without jeopardising her hard line on fiscal discipline at home. With the Treasury acknowledging that further public spending cuts may be inevitable if debt servicing costs keep climbing, Reeves’s mission in Beijing underlines her broader economic strategy: to stabilise markets, foster growth, and forge alliances — even in politically delicate terrain — to keep Britain on a sustainable path.

Read more:
Chancellor heads to China in search of growth amid surging borrowing costs

Sara Davies, the Dragons’ Den entrepreneur, is set to regain control of Crafter’s Companion, the craft supply business she founded, through a fast-tracked pre-pack insolvency deal.

The company, which gained international acclaim for its paper craft, art, and sewing products, filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators at the High Court following a fall in sales, mounting debts, and management missteps in its US operations.

Under the proposed restructuring, Davies, 40, will “significantly” increase her shareholding and return to the helm as chief executive, safeguarding about 100 jobs. Exact financial terms remain undisclosed, but her new capital injection is expected to underpin efforts to refocus on specialist paper craft, a niche which first propelled her start-up from a university bedroom in 2006 into a multimillion-pound success story.

Crafter’s Companion had thrived during lockdown, only to face a sharp reversal as inflationary pressures, higher raw material costs, and challenging retail conditions took their toll. A downturn in American sales, including the collapse of a major TV shopping partner, exacerbated losses. Last year, revenues dropped by more than a fifth to £29.9 million, deepening annual losses to £5.1 million.

Despite fresh equity from Growth Partner and new bank facilities with Santander and HSBC last year, the business struggled to remain profitable on a monthly basis. Growth Partner, set up by HomeServe founder Richard Harpin, had been the majority shareholder. Its recent decision to file the notice of intention to appoint administrators paves the way for Davies to buy back key parts of the company’s assets as part of the pre-pack arrangement.

Proponents of pre-pack insolvencies argue that they allow viable businesses to emerge swiftly and preserve employment, while critics contend they can undermine unsecured creditors and write off debt. Davies acknowledged the controversy but insisted it was necessary to return the company to profitability and protect jobs.

The deal is expected to be approved in court this week, after which Davies will focus on “branding and core product strategy”, aiming to recapture the paper craft market where her company first found success. She hopes the streamlined Crafter’s Companion can recover its former momentum and avoid additional layoffs by shedding excessive debt and honing its product range.

Davies, who became a millionaire within a year of graduating from the University of York, stepped back from daily operations over a year ago but retained a minority stake. Best known for her role on BBC’s Dragons’ Den since 2019—when she became the show’s youngest-ever panellist—she has dabbled in presenting, philanthropy, and even Strictly Come Dancing. Now, returning to Crafter’s Companion, she intends to harness her entrepreneurial credentials to restore the business to health and unlock new growth opportunities.

Read more:
Dragons’ Den star Sara Davies retakes Crafter’s Companion reins amid pre-pack rescue

Britain’s benchmark borrowing costs have soared to their highest level since the financial crisis, as investors offload government debt amid persistent inflation fears.

The yield on the UK’s 10-year gilt — closely watched as a barometer of future interest payments on public borrowing — reached 4.82 per cent on Wednesday, surpassing the peaks seen in the immediate aftermath of Liz Truss’s 2022 mini-budget.

Yields on the 30-year gilt, which took centre stage during that market turmoil two and a half years ago, climbed to 5.358 per cent on Tuesday — a fresh 27-year high. Bond yields rise as prices fall, underscoring the extent of this latest sell-off.

The pound also weakened, slipping by 1 per cent against the dollar to $1.23 and underperforming many of its peers — a signal that markets remain sceptical about the UK’s fiscal sustainability.

Investors’ enthusiasm for the dollar has continued to build over expectations of corporate tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks under the new US administration. The dollar index, tracking the greenback against six other major currencies, rose by 0.46 per cent on Wednesday and has increased by almost 7 per cent in the past year. Oil prices dipped by more than 1 per cent, bucking the broader inflation trend.

Commentators say multiple factors have made the UK particularly vulnerable to a rise in gilt yields. Britain’s reliance on energy imports has amplified commodity price shocks, while traders — seeing more attractive returns on investment-grade private debt — are demanding a higher premium on UK government bonds. Additional borrowing revealed in October’s budget, combined with the Bank of England’s gradual interest rate cuts this year, have also weighed on gilt prices.

Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum and a Times columnist, noted that “the decoupling of UK long bond yields from their most relevant international benchmark — US long bonds — took place in 2022 [after the mini-budget] and has never really reverted.”

A toxic combination of weakening sterling and rising yields was last observed during Liz Truss’s mini-budget fallout, when markets heavily questioned Britain’s fiscal resilience.

The latest spike in borrowing costs directly impacts government finances by driving up debt servicing costs, eroding the chancellor’s spending headroom. A report by Capital Economics estimates that £8.9 billion of Rachel Reeves’s £9.9 billion fiscal buffer has already been eaten away, raising the likelihood of further tax rises or public spending cuts.

Unless gilt yields settle lower by March, when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) updates its forecasts, Reeves could be forced to rein in Whitehall budgets to balance the government’s books. A Treasury spokesperson reiterated that meeting fiscal rules is “non-negotiable,” although the chancellor has pledged there will be no tax changes at her spring statement on 26 March. That leaves spending cuts as the most probable option if borrowing costs remain elevated.

Jim Reid, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said the government may be pushed towards further tax hikes if yields stay high, while acknowledging that such moves would face political resistance.

Reeves has already pencilled in a 4.3 per cent increase in departmental expenditure this year and 2.6 per cent for 2025-26. Beyond that, budgets are set to rise by only 1.3 per cent. Any shake-up in spending allocations could alter the upcoming spending review in June.

A Treasury spokesperson said it would not “pre-empt” the OBR’s figures, but emphasised that “no one should be under any doubt of the chancellor’s commitment to economic stability and sound public finances.”

Gilts have been the worst-performing major asset class this week, echoing global bond market jitters in the US, Germany, and France. Yields surged late on Tuesday following data pointing to continued inflationary pressures in the US, driving its 10-year Treasury yields to levels not seen since April 2024. Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING, noted that “bearish US sentiment has strong spillovers to the gilts market.”

The pound has suffered as investors gravitate towards the dollar, which has benefited from uncertainty around Donald Trump’s trade policy, including provocations about the Panama Canal and Greenland. Markets now expect fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England alike, a scenario that often boosts currencies. However, sterling has failed to follow suit, reflecting the gravity of the UK’s fiscal and inflationary challenges.

Kenneth Broux, currency strategist at Société Générale, warned that market conditions are “primed for a bond tantrum,” with ever-rising supply and unpredictable policies as 2025 unfolds. The concern in Whitehall is that such turbulence could persist, placing Britain’s public finances — and the chancellor’s political position — in an increasingly precarious spot.

Read more:
UK government debt sell-off accelerates as borrowing costs reach post-2008 peak

Emma Watson’s premium gin venture Renais has raised nearly £5 million to speed up its global expansion, building on its reputation for sustainable production and strong international demand.

Co-founded by the Harry Potter star and her brother, Alex Watson, the Dorset-distilled gin uses grapes sourced from the Burgundy region, including a small proportion from the family’s own vineyard in Chablis.

Despite a backdrop of economic and political uncertainty — with Donald Trump’s inauguration and proposed US tariffs on British imports — Alex Watson remains optimistic about Renais’s prospects in the American market. He plans to use the fresh capital injection to “crack a bit more deeply” into the US, where Renais launched last year.

Closer to home, the brand’s expansion into Europe continues apace, with plans to debut in physical stores across Spain and France by the end of the year. Currently available in 11 countries, Renais has distribution agreements in 22 markets and is looking to add Dubai and Canada to its roster over the coming months.

Funding has come courtesy of InvestBev, a US-based private equity firm specialising in drinks, and Jean-Sébastien Robicquet, the founder of French spirits group Maison Villevert. Renais has also strengthened its leadership with the appointment of Jimmy Weir, former group chief financial officer of Lathwaites, to its board.

Although both Watson siblings co-founded the business in 2023, Alex serves as chief executive while Emma, 34, holds the position of “creative director”. Best known for her role as Hermione Granger in the Harry Potter films, she oversees the brand’s creative vision, including special editions such as limited-edition bottle sleeves, while her brother brings industry expertise from his time at Diageo.

In a bid to position itself as a forward-thinking, eco-conscious spirits producer, Renais incorporates grape skins leftover from the wine-making process into its distillation, uses biodegradable packaging made from mushroom-based materials and operates solar-powered distilleries. These efforts, combined with its premium positioning, come at a cost: Renais retails at £48 a bottle.

Alex Watson remains confident that discerning customers will be willing to pay a premium for a sustainable tipple. “Consumers are happy to pay a little bit more to know that something is produced responsibly and sustainably,” he said.

Read more:
Emma Watson’s gin brand nets £5m as Renais plots global expansion

Food price inflation is expected to climb above 4 per cent this year, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned, in a sharp reversal of the recent trend of slowing shop prices.

According to the lobby group’s forecasts, prices at the supermarket tills will surge by an average of 4.2 per cent in the second half of the year.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, attributed the looming price increases to rising employer national insurance contributions, higher national living wage rates, and fresh packaging levies, all of which will leave little scope for retailers to absorb the additional burden. “There is little hope of prices going anywhere but up,” she said, urging the government to ensure that its planned shake-up of business rates does not inflict further costs on shops already under pressure.

The BRC’s alarm comes despite evidence that overall shop prices fell by 1 per cent last month, a faster decline than the 0.6 per cent recorded in November. Non-food items dropped by 2.4 per cent year on year, although the later timing of Black Friday in 2024 compared with the previous year may have distorted the figures by boosting discounting activity.

Dickinson noted that while food inflation appeared to have bottomed out at 1.8 per cent, it is now poised to climb again: “With many price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.”

The warning coincides with separate analysis from City investment firm Shore Capital, which suggested that government policy will be the main driver of grocery inflation this year, rather than commodity prices or exchange rates. The company pointed to the employer national insurance increase, rising to 15 per cent from 13.8 per cent in April, as a significant blow to supermarkets and major retailers. Tesco, for instance, is forecast to face an extra £250 million in costs.

Between 2022 and 2023, rising food and energy bills sent the UK’s overall inflation rate soaring; food inflation, in particular, peaked at 19.3 per cent in March 2023. A subsequent slowdown in both food and energy costs helped to bring consumer price inflation back into single digits, though it nudged up to 2.6 per cent in November from 2.3 per cent the previous month.

Shore Capital cautioned that any renewed surge in food inflation could undermine the Bank of England’s current trajectory of reducing interest rates, at present standing at 4.75 per cent. Investors had anticipated two or three rate cuts this year, but that prospect could come under threat if supermarket prices start moving significantly higher again.

Read more:
Food inflation poised to jump above 4% as levies and wage rises weigh on retailers

Sterling endured its sharpest three-day decline in almost two years this morning, as investors continued to offload UK government debt and flock to the US dollar.

By early trading, the pound had slipped 0.9 per cent against the dollar to $1.226, briefly touching its lowest level since November 2023. The currency has weakened by 2 per cent over the past three sessions, its biggest drop since February 2023.

Economists attribute sterling’s slide in part to a global shift towards the dollar, propelled by the prospect of fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and mounting trade concerns as Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House on 20 January. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six peers, rose by 0.15 per cent in early trading.

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting, published last night, hinted that policymakers plan to scale back monetary support gradually this year, giving the dollar further strength. Sterling also lost ground against the euro, dropping by 0.6 per cent to 83.93p, a near two-month low.

Despite sterling’s weakness, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.51 per cent, or 42.15 points, to 8,293.17. However, the more domestically focused FTSE 250 dipped 0.78 per cent, or 156.61 points, to 19,795.63. Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average both closed higher, while Asian markets lost momentum overnight, with China’s CSI 300 slipping 0.25 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.2 per cent. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was broadly flat.

Yields on UK government bonds continued their ascent, with the rate on 30-year gilts edging up to 5.385 per cent, its highest since 1998. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year benchmark rose by nine basis points early on before settling at 4.837 per cent, still its loftiest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Bond prices and yields move inversely, and the rapid upward movement suggests that investors are pricing in more persistent inflation and higher interest rates.

Bond markets worldwide have become increasingly jittery since the new year, amid fears that Donald Trump could introduce tariffs on US imports, triggering an inflationary trade war. Trump has denied reports that his team is exploring a watered-down version of his tariff proposals, which added further impetus to the latest sell-off.

Ordinarily, rising sovereign yields strengthen a currency by making local fixed-income assets more attractive. However, the pound’s recent decline highlights investor scepticism over the UK government’s growth ambitions and its handling of public finances.

Rising yields have also placed Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rulebook under strain, according to analysts. The jump in gilt rates has nearly erased the £9.9 billion buffer she had allowed herself, increasing the likelihood of future tax increases or spending cuts to maintain fiscal targets. The UK’s annual debt servicing costs are already in excess of £100 billion, and Reeves lifted taxes by £40 billion in October, including a £25 billion rise in employers’ national insurance contributions. While she has ruled out repeating a budget of that scale, lingering uncertainties around government policy remain.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that European bonds are leading the global market slide, with UK gilts in particular coming under pressure. “This rise in yields is adding to the risk that the government will breach its fiscal rules and have to announce further consolidation, whilst the weaker currency will add to inflationary pressures at the same time,” they said.

The Bank of England, for its part, is expecting next week’s data to show that inflation edged down to 2.5 per cent in December, from 2.6 per cent the previous month, but policymakers will be watching the current bond market turmoil closely for any signs that the outlook may be shifting.

Read more:
Sterling tumbles as bond yields soar, fanning fears over UK public finances